My name is Aaron Barajas, and I'm a first-semester student in the MS in Foresight program at UH, based here in Houston. I came across your blog after watching the presentations from the spring gathering.
I really enjoyed your post on "Writing As A Foresight Thinking Tool" and wish I hadn't missed your presentation. I also appreciated how you and Andy incorporated politics into the conversation, as that's a field where I'm particularly interested in seeing foresight applied. I found myself on the same wavelength as Andy regarding his thoughts on the "far right" mindset and how it represents an old order trying to maintain power.
This got me thinking: with the current leader of the far right, our president, being so central to the movement, what happens when he is no longer with us? Will his message fade away with him? Will a new leader simply take up the mantle? Or, will his party be forced to adopt a foresight-thinking mindset and find a more adaptable approach to the problems they aim to solve?
In your opinion, is the current political climate ultimately beneficial for their party and ideology, forcing them into a more modern way of thinking? Furthermore, can an ideology, idea, or philosophy truly survive without a charismatic leader to champion it?
Thanks for writing. I have no idea! I think too many people have and continue to assume that Donald Trump is a radical aberration and inimitable. But I think he's leaving behind a playbook for channeling the grievances of and deeply engaging 15% or so of the electorate that hasn't really been sought or taken seriously in decades. Whether that group continues to be the core of a winning coalition remains to be seen - demographics and changing voter participation and voting laws are all factors.
As far as the current climate, American politics has recently been uniquely animated by the idea that something is deeply wrong with the current system and it needs to be changed. That's a fundamentally challenging message to win on once you actually get the reins of power - voters want things to get better in some way they can feel, and will hold you accountable if things are stagnant.
But I would finally say that you should expect surprises, which is why futures is fun! Maybe it's a chain of natural disasters and associated crises, maybe it's a state that conducts a wildly successful experiment with direct democracy, maybe it's AI acceleration causing mass unemployment that coalesces into a movement with clear demands (UBI etc).
You've brought up some fascinating points about the current and future state of American politics. I agree that it's easy to view Donald Trump as an outlier, but it's more productive to see him as a product of a shifting political landscape.
Your point about a playbook for a specific, often-ignored segment of the electorate is particularly insightful. The ability to effectively mobilize and appeal to a group that feels left behind is a powerful tool, and you're right, it's something that other political figures may now try to replicate. Whether that strategy remains successful in the long run will depend on a host of factors, from demographic changes to how voting laws evolve.
The idea that something is fundamentally wrong with the political system is a powerful motivator. However, as you've said, it's also a difficult message to sustain once in power. Voters expect tangible improvements, and if those improvements don't materialize, the same discontent that led to a movement can turn against it. This creates a difficult balancing act for any leader who campaigns on a platform of radical change.
Your final point about expecting surprises is spot on. It's easy to get caught up in the current narratives, but the future of politics could be shaped by any number of unforeseen events. The potential for a major natural disaster, a new approach to governance, or a technological shift like AI to create new political movements is a great reminder that the political landscape is always in flux.
Thanks for sharing your perspective. It's a great example of the kind of complex thinking needed to understand and predict political futures. Looking forward to reading more of your stuff, take care.
Hello Trisian,
My name is Aaron Barajas, and I'm a first-semester student in the MS in Foresight program at UH, based here in Houston. I came across your blog after watching the presentations from the spring gathering.
I really enjoyed your post on "Writing As A Foresight Thinking Tool" and wish I hadn't missed your presentation. I also appreciated how you and Andy incorporated politics into the conversation, as that's a field where I'm particularly interested in seeing foresight applied. I found myself on the same wavelength as Andy regarding his thoughts on the "far right" mindset and how it represents an old order trying to maintain power.
This got me thinking: with the current leader of the far right, our president, being so central to the movement, what happens when he is no longer with us? Will his message fade away with him? Will a new leader simply take up the mantle? Or, will his party be forced to adopt a foresight-thinking mindset and find a more adaptable approach to the problems they aim to solve?
In your opinion, is the current political climate ultimately beneficial for their party and ideology, forcing them into a more modern way of thinking? Furthermore, can an ideology, idea, or philosophy truly survive without a charismatic leader to champion it?
I'd be grateful for your thoughts.
Aaron,
Thanks for writing. I have no idea! I think too many people have and continue to assume that Donald Trump is a radical aberration and inimitable. But I think he's leaving behind a playbook for channeling the grievances of and deeply engaging 15% or so of the electorate that hasn't really been sought or taken seriously in decades. Whether that group continues to be the core of a winning coalition remains to be seen - demographics and changing voter participation and voting laws are all factors.
As far as the current climate, American politics has recently been uniquely animated by the idea that something is deeply wrong with the current system and it needs to be changed. That's a fundamentally challenging message to win on once you actually get the reins of power - voters want things to get better in some way they can feel, and will hold you accountable if things are stagnant.
But I would finally say that you should expect surprises, which is why futures is fun! Maybe it's a chain of natural disasters and associated crises, maybe it's a state that conducts a wildly successful experiment with direct democracy, maybe it's AI acceleration causing mass unemployment that coalesces into a movement with clear demands (UBI etc).
Good luck in the program!
You've brought up some fascinating points about the current and future state of American politics. I agree that it's easy to view Donald Trump as an outlier, but it's more productive to see him as a product of a shifting political landscape.
Your point about a playbook for a specific, often-ignored segment of the electorate is particularly insightful. The ability to effectively mobilize and appeal to a group that feels left behind is a powerful tool, and you're right, it's something that other political figures may now try to replicate. Whether that strategy remains successful in the long run will depend on a host of factors, from demographic changes to how voting laws evolve.
The idea that something is fundamentally wrong with the political system is a powerful motivator. However, as you've said, it's also a difficult message to sustain once in power. Voters expect tangible improvements, and if those improvements don't materialize, the same discontent that led to a movement can turn against it. This creates a difficult balancing act for any leader who campaigns on a platform of radical change.
Your final point about expecting surprises is spot on. It's easy to get caught up in the current narratives, but the future of politics could be shaped by any number of unforeseen events. The potential for a major natural disaster, a new approach to governance, or a technological shift like AI to create new political movements is a great reminder that the political landscape is always in flux.
Thanks for sharing your perspective. It's a great example of the kind of complex thinking needed to understand and predict political futures. Looking forward to reading more of your stuff, take care.