BONUS: Energy 2050 Essay
I just found out that I’m not one of the five finalists for the UH 2050 energy competition. I’ve decided to share my essay here, for those who are interested. I’ll update this post with a link to the winners if I find a good source, otherwise just know that at least five essays were better than this (though I bet not many had as many ideas per page as this). My essay didn’t really use many tools from my foresight work, other than the ability to try to get up to speed quickly in a brand new area, but I’m pretty proud of it as a solid introduction to imagining a carbon-neutral future.
2050 Net Zero Energy - Generation, Storage, and Transmission
Introduction
Net Zero at the simplest level represents a balance between two quantities: the amount of carbon being released into the atmosphere and the amount being absorbed from the atmosphere. Applied to the energy sector, which currently makes up about 29% of US emissions, and may increase to more like 50% as more vehicles go electric1, this means that the amount of net atmospheric carbon created by generating energy is offset by carbon removed, and any successful strategy will involve both dramatically decreasing the carbon footprint of generation, and increasing the amount of carbon being recaptured. Total utilization of electricity in the US is projected to increase by about 25% by 2050, to over 5,100 terawatt-hours, and global demand will increase even more sharply, to something like 45,000 terawatt-hours2. This means that changes will have to be significant just to keep pace, and true transformation will be needed to get to Net Zero. This transformation will include in its scope the way we generate electricity, the way we store and transmit it, and the way we recapture emissions.
A Note About “The Future”
If the future already existed logically or actually (via mechanical determinism or maybe quantum retrocausality3), we might be able to predict it perfectly, but nothing could change it. If the future has no element of predictability, then there’s no point in making plans4. Fortunately, common sense provides a third option: we can make sensible guesses about what kinds of things might happen in the future based on the signals and trends we see in the present and patterns we observe from the past, and one of the most important inputs determining the future is our (individual and collective) agency as humans. In turn, one of the most helpful things to guide our choices is our vision of possible futures (we’re pulling ourselves toward futures we like and pushing ourselves away from futures we fear). Thus, rather than talk about what “will be” in 2050, this essay lays out a vision of a plausible future in which “Net Zero by 2050” has been achieved, and works through what could get us there. This isn’t a playbook, but should serve to give hope that these goals are attainable with the kind of dedicated focus we’ve seen in the past from our species.
Energy Generation
The most notable way that our society will have to change to reach Net Zero by 2050 in energy is by making a dramatic move away from fossil fuel electricity generation (most notably oil, coal, and natural gas). This will be challenging, as fossil fuels pack an incredible amount of energy in a given volume5.
Solar
Solar power is an iconic form of alternative energy generation, since it creates electricity from the sun, the only meaningful source of new energy coming into the Earth's system. The sun is constantly emitting a stable amount of light, but unfortunately the Earth's rotation (both daily and seasonal) and cloud cover cause the amount of light in a given place to vary over time, with some of the variance being unpredictable. Thus, use of solar power requires investment in some kind of energy storage technology, as explored below. Also, solar power requires a lot of surface area (a typical panel is about 15 square feet and generates somewhere around 300 Watts, somewhere in the neighborhood of one refrigerator’s worth6), so while the use of solar power is likely to dramatically increase, the most prevalent use in 2050 will likely be small-scale installations covering existing built spaces like homes, parking lots (where they will also provide shade), etc; large-scale standalone solar farms will become less attractive in areas with high land values, as well as places where desert land is being reclaimed (both becoming more common as populations continue to grow). Additionally, continued improvements in solar panel efficiency7 will marginally improve the power output per unit of space.
Wind
Wind power, like solar, exploits something so abundant that it's freely available. The problem of finding appropriate space for wind power is complicated by the fact that wind turbines aren't as amenable to small installations and suffer from all the drawbacks of solar, plus a few more: noise, a very prominent disruption of the skyline, and killing birds8. These limitations are likely to limit wind power to rural areas (often served to cities by long lengths of high voltage transmission lines).
Geothermal
Geothermal energy uses hot water from deep below the Earth's surface, either to generate electricity or to displace the use of electricity for heating, etc9. This energy source is clean and compact, and unlike solar and wind is a great source of consistent energy, but is much more limited in where it's geographically viable, driven by geological factors like proximity to volcanic activity. This will be a key ingredient of the energy mix for relevant regions.
Hydroelectric
Hydroelectric plants harness the potential energy in rivers flowing downhill to the ocean. Because reservoirs form upstream of the dams during times of low generation, this method essentially comes with its own storage solution and can be a great way for a power system to flex up and down and compensate for the variability of other renewable sources. Like geothermal, this resource is geographically constrained, but because it involves changing the way the river runs, building hydropower is a long term commitment that changes the landscape (potentially releasing methane in the process, a potent greenhouse gas), can seriously harm fish, and may displace people and their livelihoods (especially indigenous communities10). In some parts of the world, existing dams are being removed11. For all these reasons, it's unlikely that new hydro plants will serve a significantly larger role in the energy mix of 205012.
Tidal
Tidal power uses coastal areas with sufficiently large tides to turn turbines. One model is essentially a more consistent wind power but underwater, and another uses the flow of water into and out of a bay or lagoon like a hydro plant. These are quite geographically limited and can have pretty severe negative effects on sea life, so it's unlikely this will grow beyond a niche solution13.
Biomass
Biomass is the conversion of organic matter into fuel. We're already using this narrowly on a large scale, in the form of both ethanol from corn and biodiesel from soybeans. The combustion of this fuel releases carbon into the atmosphere, but it's carbon that came from the air at the time the plants were grown14, making it largely neutral beyond the energy required to refine it (about ¼ the carbon of fossil fuel equivalents15). To the extent that we can repurpose organic waste into biomass (rather than dedicating land to growing crops specifically for it, as we’re doing now), we're diverting carbon generation from waste decomposition into carbon generation that's serving a useful purpose such as transportation, and reducing the amount of other energy generation needed. This net-negative fuel can come from sewage, used oil, some garbage, waste from lumber/wood processing, and animal manure16.
Nuclear Fission
Nuclear fission creates massive amounts of energy by sustaining a reaction that splits apart big atoms like uranium or plutonium by hitting them with neutrons; the split releases energy and more neutrons to continue the process17. Nuclear power has a bad reputation for being difficult and expensive to build, and public opinion is ambivalent due to the potential for danger if not managed properly18. Future generations of reactors will change all of these dynamics by being much smaller, mass-produced, and inherently safer by switching from water cooling to something like molten salt19. Major investments in and wide-scale adoption of these next-generation nuclear reactors will likely be the biggest change in the energy landscape of 2050.
Nuclear Fusion
The biggest open question in the energy generation of 2050 is the state of nuclear fusion as a viable option for power generation. Using reactions similar to those that power our sun, where atoms are brought close enough to join together and release energy, this process has the advantages of using more abundant atoms as fuel and producing less waste20. There have been some important recent breakthroughs in nuclear fusion that make it more likely we will eventually figure out how to harness it21, and it’s possible that in the future we will fuel fusion reactors using Helium-3 mined from the regolith on the Moon22, but there is little that suggests that future progress will advance fast enough that it will be ready for wide-scale use by 2050.
Fossil Fuels
It’s likely that coal, petroleum, and other fossil fuels will continue to be used in small quantities, as legacy sources for regions still transitioning to a new power mix, specialty fuel for classic cars, etc. These fuels drove the 20th century for a clear reason: the energy density of fossil fuels is only rivaled by nuclear power23. The main issue with these fuels is that they release as much carbon as biofuels, but it’s 100% “net new” carbon that was previously stored underground.
Summary
Taking all of these together, energy generation in 2050 will likely be focused on next-generation nuclear fission and solar power, with other solutions used in specific geographic niches, and a low level of remaining fossil fuel generation supplemented by fuel from biomass.
Energy Storage and Transmission
Because a larger portion of the energy generated in 2050 is likely to be from sources that generate power inconsistently and somewhat unpredictably over time (especially solar), being able to store energy during times where production exceeds demand is critical for use when the reverse is true. This will also require the building of communication and bidirectional transmission infrastructure.
Conventional Batteries
Batteries store electricity via chemicals; connecting them to a circuit causes reactions that force electrons to flow through the circuit24. These reactions are reversible, so we can apply electricity to recharge them. Use of these batteries at a large scale has already begun25, and will help the transition to a more renewable-heavy energy mix, but at a significant social cost: current battery designs use materials like cobalt and lithium, the extraction of which is currently associated with significant human rights26 and environmental27 abuses. Battery technology is likely to experience big advances in efficiency and material design by 2050; alternatives like solid-state batteries (using more lithium, but less cobalt28), sodium-ion batteries (using much more abundant material29), or ceramic oxygen-ion batteries (very safe and long-lived for large-scale use30) may prove economical and are the options with the most near-term viability31.
Unconventional Batteries
Batteries store chemical energy. However, energy can be stored in many other forms. The reservoir behind a hydroelectric dam is essentially a battery that uses the potential energy of water kept uphill to generate electricity when needed. A two-reservoir system can be used in a similar way without a river, using excess solar power to move water uphill32. Gravity batteries can use extra electricity to lift objects like heavy blocks, lowering them for electricity later33. Pressure is another option: extra electricity could be used to pressurize air or water for later conversion via turbines34, including in geothermal wells. One more possibility being explored is storing kinetic energy in giant flywheels35. Though large-scale, these methods have much less environmental impact than mining for things like lithium, and are a good fit for complementing a renewable-heavy grid; it’s reasonable to expect they will be a big part of the electricity grid of 2050, outpacing conventional battery usage.
Transmission
One of the main consequences of large-scale solar power on private property is a dramatic decentralization of the generation and storage of electricity beyond large electric utilities. This will require the advancement of what’s known as the “smart grid”. Smart grid technology encompasses both changes to power transmission infrastructure and the software necessary to communicate with users36. These upgrades will make it possible for private small-scale generators and storers to choose when to use power from the grid, when to release power to the grid, and how to best manage their own storage (conventional and unconventional), presumably using a constantly changing price as a coordinating mechanism. This makes the grid significantly more complex to manage, but it should also make it more resilient against widespread outages. Finally, upgrading the transmission infrastructure with superconductivity will allow increased efficiency in the use of power37, and recent developments suggest this may be feasible by 205038.
Capture and Synergies
The energy generation and storage system mentioned above will continue to produce additional atmospheric carbon dioxide, through building, operation, waste, and so forth; because of this, continued projects to sequester atmospheric carbon will be necessary. Planting trees is an iconic form of carbon capture, and reforestation offers a number of ecological benefits, but it’s also slow, and runs into a problem similar to that posed by solar and wind power: finding available land39. New, innovative approaches will be needed, and sequestration technology is advancing to meet this challenge40.
Fortunately, there are opportunities to use energy infrastructure as part of the solution. As the technology gets more competitive, carbon can be directly captured and turned into fuel, bypassing all the complexity of growing crops for biomass41. We can keep solar panels cool by putting them on top of reservoirs, also preventing evaporation42. We can repurpose the waste heat from data centers / server farms to heat buildings and pools, reducing the need for additional energy43. The carbon from waste energy biomass can be directly captured and sequestered44. Imagine gravity batteries built in abandoned mines45 using carbon-negative concrete blocks (strengthened by injecting carbon dioxide46) to offset low-output times from solar. Even old oil rigs can be repurposed to safely inject carbon back into the pockets that used to hold petroleum47.
Possible Wild Cards and Conclusion
The last few years have strongly reinforced that our ability to project the future is limited, and that reality frequently surprises us. Although surprising events are challenging to anticipate (by definition), I present a few signals of possible events that could change the contours of what has been described above.
The future could bring changes that dramatically increase energy consumption. Indoor farming can be very space-efficient and reduce water consumption, but uses much more electricity than conventional greenhouses48. Growing increasing amounts of vegan meat in labs would similarly require massive amounts of energy/emissions that would need to be offset49. The amount of electricity going to power the data centers of 2050 could increase dramatically, due to a massive rise in the compute needed for pervasive AI generation50, cryptocurrency proof-of-work51, or other use cases we invent in the coming decades.
However, future surprises could also work in our favor and speed progress toward Net Zero. For example, scientists are working on processes to isolate an enzyme that creates electricity out of hydrogen in the air, and could potentially power low-drain devices52. This or other breakthroughs (for example, engineering bacteria or a cheap material coating that fixes carbon) might bring the goal closer.
All of these changes put together will represent a true transformation in the energy sector, but a change that could be achieved without massive disruptive or destructive effects on current social systems and government institutions. Strong incentives and coordination of efforts could mobilize the existing trends in society toward a 2050 with zero net carbon.
“U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, 2018” from https://css.umich.edu/publications/factsheets/sustainability-indicators/carbon-footprint-factshee
See “Future Negation Fallacy” in https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-essays/vol-25-no-4-june-2021/futures-fallacies-what-they-are-and-what-we-can-do-about-them
Examples: https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/indigenous-activists-fight-expansion-canadian-hydropower, https://www.culturalsurvival.org/publications/cultural-survival-quarterly/hidden-costs-hydroelectric-dams, https://news.mongabay.com/2022/11/dam-construction-ignites-indigenous-youth-movement-in-southern-chile/